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Next-Gen Console Market Share Predictions

It seems like this is the week for predictions -- both making and reviewing them.

Over the past few weeks, I've been corresponding with a good friend in the game industry. He's more bullish than I am on the prospects for the PlayStation 3. We traded market share forecasts for next-generation consoles and ended up agreeing to disagree. I suggested posting our respective predictions on my blog. He demurred, saying he wasn't fond of publicizing such exercises. Having no sense of shame in plastering my predictions for the world to see, I suggested that I post our predictions here, his anonymously. He agreed, so here goes. These are predictions for unit market share rankings at the end of the calendar years.

My friend's predictions:

2007

  • Japan: #1 Wii, #2 PS3, #3 (distant) 360
  • Europe: #1 Wii, #2 PS3, #3 360
  • North America: #1 360, #2 Wii, #3 PS3
2008
  • Japan: #1 PS3, #2 Wii, #3 (distant) 360
  • Europe: #1 (tie) Wii / PS3, #3 360
  • North America: #1 (tie) PS3 / 360, #3 Wii
And my predictions:

2007

  • Japan: #1 Wii, #2 PS3, #3 (distant) 360
  • Europe: #1 (tie) Wii / 360, #3 PS3
  • North America: #1 360, #2 Wii, #3 PS3
2008
  • Japan: #1 Wii, #2 PS3, #3 (distant) 360
  • Europe: #1 Wii, #2 360, #3 PS3
  • North America: #1 (tie) 360 / Wii, #3 PS3

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