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Boot Camp = Market Share Decline? What?

Much has been written about Boot Camp, Apple's new software to enable dual-booting Intel-based Macs into either OS X or Windows XP. Most of the coverage has been fine. But I'm still trying to make sense of this piece from a Bloomberg News story:

Apple's move will "drastically reduce" the costs of switching to Apple PCs, J.P. Morgan Securities analyst Bill Shope said in a note. Boot Camp allows Macs to run the Microsoft operating system, an improvement from so-called emulation programs that let Mac users run some Windows applications...

Goldman Sachs analyst Rick Sherlund was more skeptical of the impact of the move, saying in a research note that he doesn't expect any meaningful increase in Mac sales in the short term. And while Microsoft will make money selling Windows to Apple users, Sherlund said, that group is still only a small percentage of the market.

Mark Stahlman, a Caris & Co. analyst in New York, also doesn't expect Boot Camp to help boost Apple's market share. Microsoft is readying the next version of Windows, called Vista, and this Apple software only works with the older Windows XP.

"It's actually likely to lead to a decline in market share" because customers will pick Vista when it becomes available, Stahlman said.

One can agree or disagree with the opinions of Mssrs. Shope and Sherlund. They're reasonable, differing points of view. But either Stahlman's remarks were misquoted or misrepresented, or what he's saying is nonsensical. "[Boot Camp] only works with the older Windows XP"? You mean the current version of Windows? The version of Windows for which 218 million people had installed the latest Service Pack as of July 2005? The version of Windows that won't begin to be replaced until January 2007? And "'It's actually likely to lead to a decline in market share' because customers will pick Vista'"? Pardon me?

So let me see if I have this straight:

  1. Apple releases software that enables the current version of Windows to boot on Macs.
  2. Microsoft releases a new version of Windows.
  3. Apple's market share goes down.
Seriously, this doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Does anyone have any insight? If I were a professional blogger, I'd be on the phone right now to Stahlman and to the author of the story asking them to explain themselves.

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