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Checking Up on the Crystal Ball

In December 2002, I wrote:

It's true that, today, blogging is about writing. The 500,000 (or so) people currently blogging are, for a variety of reasons, heavily biased towards expressing themselves through words. But I don't believe this will remain true for long. Though there will always be a core of bloggers who are passionate about writing (including me), I believe that most of the growth in blogging -- which I expect to be two or three orders of magnitude within five years -- will come through people who blog from mobile devices and who do so mostly through rich media such as pictures, video, and the like.

From a story in today's Business Journal:

Sony Ericsson and Google Inc. said on Tuesday they have signed a deal to make a phone whose owners will be able to easily file to a personal blog.

Sony Ericson said all of its future mobile phones will come with Google's Blogger and Web Search features.

Owners will need a blogger.com account to file stories via their mobile phone.

It is the first time a mobile phone will come with tools for blogging directly from a handset.

The software will first appear on the recently announced K610 UMTS phone and new flagship K800 and K790, available by June.

So far, so good. The next question is, will there be 50-500 million bloggers within another two years?

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In my previous entry, I wrote: The next question is, will there be 50-500 million bloggers within another two years?Of course, I could have taken 15 seconds to visit Technorati and see that it is currently tracking 29.1 million blogs.... [Read More]

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