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Why I'm Not Paid for Punditry

My election prediction:

  • Popular vote
    • Bush: 49 percent
    • Kerry: 51 percent
  • Electoral votes
    • Bush: 232
    • Kerry: 306
  • Battleground states
    • For Bush: Colorado, New Mexico
    • For Kerry: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
What actually happened (with two states, Iowa and New Mexico, still too close to call):
  • Popular vote
    • Bush: 51 percent
    • Kerry: 48 percent
  • Electoral votes
    • Bush: 274
    • Kerry: 252
  • Battleground states
    • For Bush: Colorado, Florida, Ohio
    • For Kerry: Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

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